Memecoin investor Murad has said the crypto bull cycle has yet to begin, with Bitcoin trading near $82,000 after U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $526.7 million in daily inflows.
Summary
- Murad said crypto’s bull cycle has not begun, without giving a timeline or price target.
- Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on Oct. 19, reducing October’s net outflows to $88 million.
- Glassnode’s preceding weekly data showed continued selling despite stronger demand for bullish futures exposure.
- Binance’s historical study found four of five rebounds following shallow drawdowns later broke their previous lows.
Murad’s Oct. 20 X post declared that the market’s main advance remained ahead, without setting a price target or giving a timeline.
“The Crypto Bull Cycle hasn’t even begun yet.”
The post had drawn approximately 66,000 views, 1,500 likes, 240 reposts and 329 replies when captured. His statement offered no supporting market data or definition of what would mark the beginning of a bull cycle.
After retreating from nearly $83,000, Bitcoin was down 1.2% over 24 hours at $81,730.70 earlier on Oct. 20, as crypto.news reported on Oct. 20.
The same technical assessment identified $82,587 and $83,457 as recovery levels on the 4-hour chart, with potential support at $81,144 and $80,000.
Crypto bull cycle claim meets a rebound in ETF buying
Farside Investors’ daily table showed $526.7 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 19, following $228.4 million in net withdrawals across the preceding five trading sessions.
BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $665.2 million in subscriptions. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $54.9 million in withdrawals. The remaining funds listed in the table recorded no net flows that day.
Calculations from Farside’s published daily totals put October’s cumulative net withdrawals at $614.7 million through Oct. 16. Monday’s inflow reduced that shortfall to $88 million through Oct. 19.
The single session therefore more than offset the previous week’s withdrawals, although the month remained negative. IBIT’s subscriptions exceeded the combined net inflow because redemptions at FBTC and GBTC absorbed part of the money entering the fund group.
Farside’s Oct. 20 row still contained missing fund entries when checked. Its displayed zero did not represent a completed trading session with no inflows or outflows.
Bitcoin positioning still showed selling pressure
Glassnode’s Oct. 19 Market Pulse reported that selling had eased during the week to Oct. 18, while spot and ETF demand remained weak. Its measurement period preceded the Oct. 19 ETF inflow.
Across the derivatives indicators, futures open interest slipped from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion. Long-side funding payments rose from $1.1 million to $1.6 million, which the analytics firm described as renewed willingness to pay for bullish exposure.
Perpetual futures cumulative volume delta improved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million, according to Glassnode. Aggressive sellers still outweighed buyers despite the smaller negative reading.
Spot cumulative volume delta moved in the opposite direction, falling from negative $67 million to negative $83.6 million. Glassnode characterized the change as continued aggressive selling on centralized exchanges.
On-chain fees and transfer volume each fell roughly 10%, while active addresses remained stable. Options positioning showed continued demand for downside protection, with 25-delta skew rising and implied volatility moving above realized volatility.
Earlier Bitcoin rebounds have produced mixed outcomes
Historical research offers a separate counterpoint to claims that a recovery confirms a new cycle.
Binance Research examined seven episodes between 2011 and 2023 when Bitcoin closed at least 40% above its cycle low while remaining at least 25% below its previous record, according to Oct. 5 coverage of its historical Bitcoin rebound study.
Five signals followed drawdowns of 30% to 38%. Four subsequently broke their previous cycle lows within 43 days, while the July 2021 case held.
The two successful signals followed deeper declines of 75.5% in April 2019 and 67.1% in January 2023. Both eventually reached new highs without first breaking their cycle lows.
Binance cautioned that seven cases were too few to form a reliable forecasting model. Its researchers called the findings a “base rate rather than a forecast.”
Analysts have offered competing cycle readings
Fidelity had warned in September that Bitcoin’s August rally could represent either a lasting recovery or a temporary advance during a continuing bear market, according to coverage of its fourth-quarter crypto market outlook.
The firm said July might already have produced the low, while leaving open the possibility of another decline in November or later.
A bullish interpretation appeared in September coverage of CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju’s Bitcoin bull cycle forecast. He expected a full-cycle gain of three to five times, arguing that institutional ownership and a larger market could reduce the extremes seen in earlier cycles.
