Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket after the prediction market platform hosted wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.
Summary
- Indonesia blocked Polymarket after users bet on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early.
- Komdigi classified Polymarket as online gambling, saying crypto-based prediction markets violate Indonesian law.
- The ban follows India’s Polymarket block and wider global pressure on prediction market platforms.
The move adds to a growing list of countries treating crypto-based prediction markets as gambling products rather than forecasting tools, according to Reuters.
The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, known as Komdigi, said Polymarket operated as online gambling under the cover of a prediction market. Ministry official Alexander Sabar said, “The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia.”
Political bets trigger Indonesia’s Polymarket block
The action followed the launch of a Polymarket contract tied to Prabowo’s presidency. The market asked whether Prabowo would cease to be president by several dates, including May 31, June 30, and Dec. 31, 2026.
Polymarket data showed about $46,000 in trading volume on the market. Traders priced a 1% chance of Prabowo leaving by May 31, a 2% chance by June 30, and about a 15% chance by Dec. 31, 2026.
The market opened on May 20, 2026. Polymarket’s own rules said the contract would resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo stopped serving as president within the stated period, including through resignation, removal, detention, or another condition that prevented him from performing the role.
Komdigi frames Polymarket as online gambling
Komdigi did not limit its statement to the Prabowo market. The ministry described Polymarket more broadly as a platform that lets users bet money on uncertain events.
Sabar said activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on outcomes that are not certain. He said this makes the platform conflict with Indonesian law.
The ministry said the block was meant to protect the public, especially young users in Indonesia’s digital space. It also said it was reviewing social media accounts linked to the platform for possible further restrictions.
India block adds to wider pressure
Indonesia’s move follows a similar action in India. Related coverage reported that Indian authorities blocked Polymarket after internet providers and VPN operators were told to restrict access to prediction market and online betting platforms.
That report said India classified crypto-based prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming services under its 2025 gaming law. Officials also raised concerns over stablecoin payments, capital outflows, and offshore betting activity.
Moreover, prediction markets are also facing pressure in other regions. Argentina, Colombia, and Romania had restricted Polymarket after regulators treated the platform as unauthorized gambling activity.
Prediction market scrutiny keeps widening
The Indonesia block comes as prediction markets face a separate debate in the United States. Related coverage reported that Kalshi has backed Americans for Fair Markets, a new advocacy group pushing for federal rules and consumer protections for prediction market platforms.
That same report said U.S. lawmakers are probing Kalshi and Polymarket over user checks, geographic limits, and suspicious trading controls. The inquiry follows concerns that people with non-public information could profit from event contracts.
Separate coverage said CFTC officials who questioned prediction market firms were suspended, investigated, or pushed out, according to a New York Times report. The report added to debate over whether event contracts should fall under federal market rules or local gambling laws.
