Bitcoin and altcoin prices could stage a strong rally in July after a surprise statement from Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair.
In a statement, Powell changed his tune on when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. For the first time this year, he did not rule out slashing rates as soon as in the July meeting. He said:
“I really can’t say. It’s going to depend on the data. And we are going meeting by meeting. I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data fall.”
In his testimony to Congress last week, Powell insisted that the bank would maintain a wait-and-see approach before hiking interest rates. He and other officials are assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on interest rates.
Some Federal Reserve officials have supported a July interest rate cut. In recent statements, Christopher Waller and Michele Bowman have insisted that Trump’s tariffs were having a limited impact on inflation and that a July cut would be necessary.
Still, traders and the futures market are unconvinced that the Fed will cut in July. Polymarket data pegs a July cut at 17% and no change at 82%. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of a cut at just 19.1%.
A July rate cut would be highly bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins because it would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. It would also increase risk appetite among investors, as happened during the COVID-19 pandemic when the bank brought rates to zero.
The rate cut would also coincide with the passing of Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which introduces some tax cuts and reduces regulations. Some of the money saved in taxes will be invested in cryptocurrencies.
While a July rate cut is not guaranteed, most analysts anticipate one in September, with odds standing at over 75%. In a statement this week, Goldman Sachs predicted three cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley sees seven in 2026.
Bitcoin and altcoins have other catalysts
Bitcoin and altcoins have other catalysts that will push them higher this year. For example, Bitcoin demand continues rising, with spot ETF inflows nearing the $50 billion mark. More companies like Coinbase, Block, GameStop, and MetaPlanet continue to accumulate Bitcoin.
Additionally, the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve several altcoin ETFs later this year. Odds of an XRP ETF being approved this year have jumped to 85%, while Solana (SOL) has soared to 99%. ETF approvals will likely lead to more inflows among investors.
Further, regulatory clarity in the crypto industry is happening, which will attract more investors. For example, the US Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, which focuses on the stablecoin industry.
